That’s what the exit polls are saying, and thank God. That said, the exits are also saying that Labor is finished and Yisrael is in third, which is all kinds of depressing. I guess Israel is having its own version of the 2002 French presidential election, with Barak as Jospin, and Lieberman as a far more menacing version of Le Pen.
I think the conventional wisdom that a Livni-headed Kadima/Likud coalition would be best is largely right, assuming Likud plays fair and is willing to help sell a Livni-negotiated peace deal to the Israeli public. Even if they’re unwilling to help forge peace, anything led by Livni would be better than a Likud/Yisrael/Shas/National Union coalition, the mere prospect of which gives me nightmares.