2 thoughts on “Landslide

  1. It is true that Arizona has a huge Hispanic population and that McCain isn’t up by as much as you might think. According to the site that I trust the most, McCain-Palin is up 14 points in Alaska and 31 points in Utah, but only 7 points in Arizona.
    It is true that 7 points is not nearly as good as Bush’s 14-point victory in Arizona. But the GOP has worked mightily since then to alienate Hispanic voters, moreover McCain (unlike Bush) has done very little to build personal rapport with Hispanics, and of course the wild economy doesn’t help McCain either.
    That said, pouncing on the two most favorable polls in just one state is not the path to clear thinking or good predictions. The totality of the evidence would include not only all of the polls in Arizona, but also polls in cohort states such as Texas and Utah, as well as the reputations of the pollsters. The right way to combine all of the evidence for all 50 states is with multivariate regression.
    If you do all of that work, you get the picture at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com, which as I said is the site that I like best. In the larger picture, then, these two Arizona polls are not all that credible. Moreover, while Obama could well get 375 EV, it’s hard for him to go much further than that.

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