North Carolina’s called for Obama, as soon as the polls close, which is always a good sign. No one’s calling Indiana yet; I still think it’ll be a pretty comfortable Clinton win, but I’d be happy with single digits. I’m standing by my (admittedly optimistic) prediction of +5 Clinton in Indiana and +10 Obama in NC.
Update: Just a note on the exit polls showing that about half of Clinton supporters wouldn’t support Obama: stop it. Everyone who said that to a pollster, stop it. That means you too, one third of Obama supporters who wouldn’t vote for Clinton. Anyone who considers a McCain presidency more beneficial to whatever liberal policy goals are most important to them than a presidency of their second-favorite primary contender is an idiot, an absolute, simple idiot. There is no issue on which McCain is better than Clinton or Obama, none. Anyone who’d vote for McCain over either of them is either not a liberal, completely ignorant of the candidates’ policy views, or engaging in extremely dangerous posturing. I’m willing to say, unequivocally, that in the incredibly unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, I will cast my ballot for Hillary Clinton on November 4th. Every Democrat – no matter how embittered or angry they may be about Clinton or Obama – should say that about the candidate they don’t favor.
Update II: CBS is calling Indiana, but when Chuck Todd is saying that he could win based on votes in Gary and Indianapolis, I’m inclined to wait and see. It may be like in Missouri, where the AP called the state for Clinton but Obama got enough votes in St. Louis and Kansas City to pull into the lead. On a more frivolous note, I find it odd that Hotline describes PBR, which Obama apparently drank tonight, the “beer of the working man”. I’ve always understood it to be the beer of the Williamsburg hipster. Maybe irony’s just gone too far.
Update III: You know, when John King’s magic touch-screen map is saying that zero percent of the vote is counted in Gary, there are still a lot of black precincts not counted in Marion County, and the margin’s only six points in Clinton’s favor, I’m getting hopeful. I don’t think there’ll be a win, but it’ll be close. But a win would be so awesome. Also, if Gary wins this for Obama, I’ll be singing this all of tomorrow:
Update IV: Well, it’s almost midnight, none of Lake County is in yet, Clinton is leading by 38,000 votes or 4%, and djw makes a really convincing case that there are enough Obama votes in Lake to overturn that margin. I’ll see how it pans out in the morning, but in any case, Obama racked up a bigger margin in NC than anyone expected, and Clinton fell way short of expectations in Indiana. Obama’s obliterated her delegate gain from Pennsylvania and expanded his lead in both delegates and the popular vote even further, and Clinton is running out of excuses for staying in.

5 thoughts on “Indiana/NC

  1. Dylan, I’m not so sure if I agree. If it comes to the convention, and Clinton leaves with the nomination despite Obama’s lead among pledged delegates and in the popular vote, then I don’t think it’s so unreasonable to deny support.
    I mean, if you’re a black voter for example, if Clinton gets the nomination despite losing the primaries, it will look like an example – writ large – of the old adage older black people tell their children and grandchildren, “white people will always make you work twice as hard for the same results.” And it will piss a lot of black people off, who will feel (rightly or wrongly) that the only reason Obama didn’t get the nomination is because Clinton insisted he wasn’t “electable.” And in their eyes, why did Clinton say he wasn’t electable? Because he was black.
    If I were subject to that kind of betrayal (which, coincidently, I would be) – especially from a family who wouldn’t now be where they are if not for my community’s support – then I’d be pissed enough to sit out November, and justifiably so.

  2. If Hillary is nominated I plan to stay home on election day and not vote for her OR McSame. Alternately, I may vote for a third party candidate. If anyone other than Obama is the next president, I’m moving to Canada.

  3. The New York Times confirms your suspicions about PBR, and the fact that PBR is a subject of a Times Magazine article itself signifies that the brand has strayed awfully far from its blue-collar Milwaukee roots. (Incidentally, that brewery was on my bus route in elementary school.) But whatever. At least it’s a domestic.

  4. Jamelle – I’m not saying Clinton hasn’t used racial attacks. Clearly, she has, and she’s at best more than willing to exploit racism for her personal ambition and at worst an actual racist. The question is whether, on that issue or a multitude of others, she’s significantly better than McCain. For all her flaws, she’s better than him.
    Mike – I really hope you reconsider. It reminds me of the 1991 Louisiana Governor’s race, when the hugely corrupt Edwin Edwards was widely expected to lose until the Republicans nominated David Duke. His campaign slogans were then, “Choose the lizard, not the wizard” and my personal favorite, “Vote for the crook. It’s important.” Vote for the racist warmonger. It’s important.
    Eva – I didn’t know it had a Milwaukee tie! It’s amazing you haven’t descended into Pitchfork-worshiping, Converse-wearing madness with a PBR brewery so nearby.

  5. Dylan – For the record, I don’t think Clinton is a racist, and I wasn’t trying to argue about whether she did/did not use racial attacks in her campaign. What I am disputing however, is your claim that it would be unreasonable not to support Clinton in the general if she were the nominee; I think you can imagine a situation – like the one I outlined – where a set of voters could have reason to justifiably sit out the election.
    Though I agree, that would be dumb, since regardless of any beef with Clinton, it’s not worth a President McCain.

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