CBS exit polling has Obama up 51-49 among women, 61-35 among men; as women outnumber men 57-43 among Democratic primary voters, this adds up to 55-39 victory for Obama. Remember, these polls tend to overestimate Obama’s support, but this seems like a pretty comfortable margin. Meanwhile, all I’ve heard about Hawai’i is that my lifelong Republican grandparents on Maui have driven down from their house on Haleakalā to caucus for Obama. Now, “anecdote” is not the singular of data, and they do have me as a grandson (and my parents as a daughter and son-in-law), but I find that encouraging.
CNN isn’t projecting yet, suggesting that this is not quite a Potomac-style blowout. That’s fine; if it’s a win, I’m happy, and if the margin’s greater than 10, I’m ridiculously happy.
CNN just projected. W00t!
With 42% in, CNN has:
Obama: 55% (20 delegates)
Clinton: 44% (14 delegates)
Obviously, the delegate counts will go up for both (Wisconsin has 92, total), hopefully expanding his margin there. But considering as the average margin of last polls five polling companies put out was 7.2%, an 11% victory is expectations-beating.