Returns Liveblog

So CNN is calling Georgia for Obama, with less than 1% in. Not surprising, given that exit poll. By the way, this is the first post to appear above the Madia post. All caucuses in the Minnesota 3rd have begun, so all we can do now is hope for the best.

First 8:00PM returns coming in: Obama wins Illinois and Clinton wins Oklahoma. No surprises yet.

No new projections from CNN, though FOX is calling Tennessee for Clinton, which is no surprise. Wolf Blitzer does inform me that “a good thing to have on your lap now is a laptop.” Gee, laptops are used on laps? The things I learn…

Clinton and Huckabee win Arkansas. I can barely contain my shock.

CNN projects Tennessee for Clinton as well. I imagine the interesting results are going to take a while.

Dammit – MSNBC calls Massachusetts for Clinton. That hurts, but we had a lot of ground to make up.

Clinton wins New York – big surprise there.

Obama wins Delaware. Very nice.

FOX calls New Jersey for Hillary. Ugh.

MSNBC calls Alabama for Obama. Awesome.

MSNBC is also calling North Dakota for Obama. Kansas and Minnesota are both looking good, but they aren’t called yet.

And MSNBC is also calling Utah for Obama. Great. Also, Romney – I wonder why?

Tucker Carlson is not wearing a bowtie. My mind just exploded.

Drudge says Minnesota, Kansas, Idaho, and (!) Connecticut are all Obama country. No networks I’m seeing are making those projections, but they seem well-founded based on the counts. Connecticut is a major upset, much more than Clinton’s win in Massachusetts. Let’s hope the networks treat it as such. So far, it’s 10 states for Obama to 6 for Clinton.

CNN is confirming all of those as well.

Drudge is calling Colorado for Obama and Missouri for Clinton. The latter’s pretty disappointing, given McCaskill’s support, but Colorado’s a nice get.

CNN is saying that Obama is slaughtering Clinton in St. Louis and Kansas City, which aren’t fully reporting yet, so there’s a chance he’ll close the 5% gap. I wouldn’t bet on it, but at least it looks like there’ll be a close delegate distribution.

I’m heading to bed. Alaska looks like an easy win, and Missouri looks like it’ll go to Clinton in a squeaker. California is looking like a comfortable Clinton win, but I’d be glad if it goes otherwise. Without California, the Obama campaign and Chuck Todd are projecting Obama delegate leads of 72 and 48, respectively, and Josh Marshall is projecting that, even assuming an easy Clinton win in California, their delegate totals, including super delegates, will be roughly equal. That in itself is a victory for Obama. As Chris Bowers has said time and time again, the post-Feb. 5th schedule is really, really favorable to Obama. It’ll still be decided by super delegates, but if Obama follows up tonight with a series of February wins, it’ll be hard for those delegates to avoid coalescing around him. Of course, anything can happen, but I think Obama’s in a solid position to win after tonight.

4 thoughts on “Returns Liveblog

  1. In the end I did vote for Obama, although it wasn’t an easy decision. The one sentiment among Obama supporters that I think is truly wrong-minded is the threat to stay home in November if Clinton wins the nomination. That tactic is usually an idle threat; and it is all the worse when it isn’t.
    In other news, the papers say that Heath Ledger basically won a Darwin award by abusing sedatives. He had six prescriptions, not only sleeping pills but also anti-anxiety medicine. It rather suggests that, like many other celebrities, he had too much ego and self-pity to respect doctors. Now to be fair, anyone can fall victim to acquired situational narcissism — even Albert Einstein showed some traits of it. Even so, a shallow profession will generally have more of it than a grown-up one.
    In yet other news, we saw the interesting and presently highly ironic 80s movie, “The Beast”. This is not a perfect movie, but then, neither is “The Battle of Algiers”. On balance we liked “The Beast” better.

  2. Well, thanks for the vote Greg. I know I for one won’t be staying home even if she wins. Did you get a sense of which way Davis went?
    I just Wikipediaed The Beast, and it looks interesting. It’d take a lot for me to prefer it to Algiers, though.

  3. Somehow Algiers didn’t entirely click for me, even though I did think that it was interesting. The movie was propagandistic. That by itself might not have been so bad, but the direction of some of the propaganda was bothersome. One of the “actors” was actually a key figure of the Algerian revolt. The movie whitewashed his transgressions; it also probably exaggerated his loyalty to and prominence in the cause. Also, in parts the movie substituted propaganda for plot and character development.
    Davis went for Clinton all the way, for a variety of reasons. To name two, Obama didn’t campaign here and a lot of the students didn’t vote.

  4. Even if one doesn’t side with the FLN, and to do so uncritically would indeed be folly, I think the film has important things to say about counterinsurgency, state-sponsored torture, liberation movements, etc. Colonel Mathieu has always been the most interesting character for me; he isn’t portrayed as a cartoonish villain but as a well-intentioned strategist whose detachment from the Algerian population morally corrupts both him and his mission.
    It’s too bad Davis students didn’t organize; I imagine, being mainly California natives, they shouldn’t have had much trouble. We did a lot of work getting out-of-state Dartmouth students registered, and it paid off in the Hanover vote.

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