Something Awesome This Way Comes

So, apparently there’s a poll coming out showing Hillary’s lead in New Hampshire shrinking dramatically. The problem is that there are varying reports about its exact content. Here’s Taegan Goddard:

Political Wire got an advance look at a new poll from New Hampshire that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton’s lead cut dramatically, essentially making it a three way race with John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama.

Nice! So NH is basically going to turn into Iowa, which probably would mean that whoever wins Iowa would win NH by a large margin. But it may be even better – Marc Ambinder says says there are two polls with positive trendlines:

Two new reputable polls of New Hampshire Democratic Primary voters will show statistically significant drops in support for frontrtunner Hillary Clinton, Democrats who have seen those polls said today.

One of the polls shows that the gap between Clinton and Barack Obama narrowed by more than 10 points. Her biggest decline was seen among older voters.
The other shows Clinton’s lead over Obama reduced by approximately 9 points.
John Edwards remains at about 15 percent in both.

So not only is this trend not an anomaly, Edwards isn’t doing as well as Goddard says. Sweet! But, wait, here’s Ben Smith suggesting a slightly worse result:

I’d been wondering how to handle the NBC/Marist poll embargoed until this Sunday. It wasn’t actually sent to me directly, but by a reader, which leaves me unbound by the embargo.

Here’s the central point: Clinton is up just 11 points, down from 21 points last month, over Obama. And the key change has come among older men.

Now, a 10 points swing in a month, and a 11 point margin, is very good progress. But it certainly isn’t a tie. In any case, it seems like there are going to be two polls showing real growth for Obama and decline for Hillary this weekend; the only real dispute is over exactly how awesome the polls will be for Obama. Whatever the margin, this is unequivocally good news for Obama.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s