Obama’s Electibility

He’s by far the most popular Democratic politician in the country, and second only to Rudy among all politicians. In fact, he’s the only Democrat currently active in electoral politics to crack 50% approval, and he gets 58.8% (Bill Clinton’s the only other Democrat with >50% approval, with 55.8% – yes, Obama beats Bill). And if you don’t trust the peoples’ opinion on this, the markets are in agreement: based on current Tradesports odds, Mankiw estimates that Obama is by far the most electable potential candidate of either party. As if that didn’t make me happy enough, Gore is second.

2 thoughts on “Obama’s Electibility

  1. Maybe Obama is electable, I don’t really know, but not because an archconservative like Greg Mankiw says so. The Tradesports contracts for Obama and Edwards are thinly traded long shots; the Tradesports value is therefore not a particular accurate measure of anything.
    There is also an important catch to Bayes factors. Mankiw calculates an estimate for the chance that Obama is elected if he is nominated. But the Tradesports market carries with it its own reasons for why he might be nominated. If you try to create new reasons to nominate Obama, then those new conditions may not lead to his election. By analogy, it may be true that if you speak Latin, then you have probably read Plutarch; but that does not prove that if you make Latin literacy more likely, that it will make Plutarch more likely along with it.
    Basically Mankiw is being interesting but facetious. It’s easy to be facetious about politicians that you don’t really respect.

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