My Predictions

It’s Halloween, I’m sick of the little children asking for candy, I just finished writing a huge article on Turkey’s relationship with the EU, and I want to do something thoughtless and pointless. How about an election prediction post! I really don’t know much about the House races, but given that Rothenberg and Cook have low-end figures that are over the ever-so-important 15 seat mark, I’ll predict a Democratic takeover. The only real question is how big it will be. As for the Senate, I think Maryland and Minnesota are safe keeps, and Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island and Montana are all safe gains for the Democrats. That leaves a 51-49 Republican Senate. I think Bob Menendez will win an easier victory than expected – thepolls are with him, and Republican turnout isn’t going to be great in this political climate. Fournewpolls show Webb considerably ahead in Virginia, so I’ll swing that one over, and after a long period of deadlock McCaskill has eked ahead in Missouri, so I think they’ll pull out tiny victories. Ford’s well behind now, and suffers from the race problem. So I predict a 51-49 Democratic Senate.

3 thoughts on “My Predictions

  1. Except that all the Halloween parties were on Saturday. And I have to have a suit on hand for this.
    I actually think that Kerry’s being totally misconstrued. No fair person could say that he was talking about the troops and not Bush.

  2. Or, hey, you could be Mark Foley and go wearing underwear only. :-).
    You could certainly make a case that Kerry is being misconstrued, or rather that the Republicans are distorting and exploiting his comments. But isn’t that what campaigning is all about? I don’t think that he is crafting his phrases very carefully at the moment.

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